China confirmed as world’s top exporter

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt and Geoff Dyer in Beijing
Published: February 9 2010 10:16 | Last updated: February 9 2010 10:16
China overtook Germany last year to become world export champion, official figures confirmed on Tuesday.

December trade figures for Germany highlighted the hit Europe’s largest economy took in 2009 from the collapse in global economic confidence at the start of the year. German goods’ exports fell by 18.4 per cent compared with the previous year – the biggest year-on-year fall since 1950, according to the federal statistics office. Overall, German exports last year were equivalent to $1,121.3bn, which compared with the $1,201.7bn exported by China.

In Germany, the loss of the “Exportmeister” label is not seen as a massive blow, however. China had long been on track to take the title and its loss might deflect some of the international criticism the German government has faced for not doing more to boost domestic demand. German imports fell by 17.2 per cent last year – almost as fast as exports.

Meanwhile, Germany can take comfort from a surprisingly strong rebound in exports at the end of last year. Exports rose in December for the fourth consecutive month and were 3 per cent higher than in November, continuing a robust recovery since the May.

The data suggest exports helped boost overall economic growth in the final quarter of last year, and will offset some of the gloom created last week by disappointing figures for German industrial orders at the end of 2009.

Simon Junker, economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said business confidence surveys and orders in the pipeline suggest German exports will continue to grow in coming months – but their dynamism might start to slow as a result of the problems that have hit Greece and other highly indebted eurozone countries.

“The structural problems in many trading-partner countries, which have become apparent recently in several eurozone periphery countries, will prevent a sharp upswing of Germany’s export driven industry,” Mr Junker argued.

China’s goods exports also suffered badly last year, falling by 16 per cent over the course of the year, the first time they had declined since 1978. In recent months there have been signs of a pick-up in exports, including a 17.7 per cent year-on-year increase in December and analysts expect a 20 per cent increase in January when the figures are released later this week. However it is not clear yet if the rebound reflects restocking by customers in Europe and the US which had let inventories run down during the crisis or if it is the result of recovering demand from consumers.

China’s trade surplus dropped 34 per cent last year to $196bn as stimulus spending led imports to decline at a slower rate than exports. However some economists predict the surplus could start to widen again this year as the global economy recovers and Chinese investment slows.

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